The emergence of the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) in Northwest Nigeria marks a significant escalation in the country’s evolving security landscape. While public discourse has frequently conflated ISSP with Lakurawa, a locally rooted armed group operating in the region since at least 2017, this report demonstrates that the two organisations are distinct, independent, and actively hostile toward one another.
Based on field research conducted across 13 villages in seven local government areas spanning Sokoto and Kebbi states, this study documents ISSP’s growing organisational presence through interviews with community leaders and residents, analysis of 16 correspondence letters issued by the group, and examination of the operational dynamics between ISSP and Lakurawa. The evidence shows that ISSP has been establishing contact with communities by at least December 2025, intensifying its activities in early 2026, and has deliberately sought to differentiate itself from Lakurawa through ideological outreach, conciliatory messaging, and promises of protection, contrasting sharply with Lakurawa’s pattern of coercion, extraction, and punitive enforcement.
The report further reveals that ISSP’s arrival introduces into Nigeria the intense jihadist rivalry that has defined the contemporary Sahel, particularly between ISSP and JNIM, with reported confrontations already occurring within Nigerian territory. This fragmentation complicates threat assessment and attribution, as illustrated by ISSP’s claim of responsibility for the Giro Masa attack, an operation that field sources confirm was carried out by Lakurawa.
The findings carry significant implications for counterterrorism strategy. Not properly differentiating armed groups in the Northwest risks developing ineffective responses. Military operations, while necessary, cannot by themselves address the governance deficits, socioeconomic exclusion, and weak state presence that make communities vulnerable to extremist influence. The report concludes that Northwest Nigeria is becoming part of a wider Sahelian conflict system in which alliances, rivalries, and recruitment networks increasingly transcend national borders. An effective response will require a strategy that is adaptive, integrated, and regional in scope, one that combines sustained military pressure with stronger local governance, community engagement, and pragmatic regional cooperation.
Malik Samuel is a senior researcher at Good Governance Africa-Nigeria. Before joining GGA, he was a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies, specialising in the Boko Haram conflict in the Lake Chad Basin Region. Malik also worked as a conflict researcher with Amnesty International Nigeria. He was also a Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders field communications manager in Northeast Nigeria. Before that, he was an investigative journalist at the Abuja-based International Centre for Investigative Reporting. Malik holds a Master's degree in Conflict, Peace, and Security from the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya and the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR).
