Demand is nothing short of explosive, projected to quadruple by 2030 and potentially grow ninefold by 2040 as the EV revolution accelerates. Yet, this soaring demand is met by a dangerously concentrated supply chain. Just three countries, Australia, Chile, and China, control the lion’s share of mining, while China alone dominates the complex refining of raw ore into battery-grade chemicals.
This reliance on so few actors creates profound vulnerability, exposing the world’s clean energy ambitions to price shocks, trade disputes, and geopolitical instability.
It is against this tense backdrop that the global race for lithium has taken a decisive turn toward Africa, with Nigeria – with $34 billion worth of lithium deposits – emerging not just as a new frontier, but as a nation that intends to reshape its role in the supply chain.
Malik Samuel is a senior researcher at Good Governance Africa-Nigeria. Before joining GGA, he was a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies, specialising in the Boko Haram conflict in the Lake Chad Basin Region. Malik also worked as a conflict researcher with Amnesty International Nigeria. He was also a Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders field communications manager in Northeast Nigeria. Before that, he was an investigative journalist at the Abuja-based International Centre for Investigative Reporting. Malik holds a Master's degree in Conflict, Peace, and Security from the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya and the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR).
