Growing alliance between jihadis and criminals challenges Nigeria’s approach to end farmer-herder conflict

Over the past two decades, the conflict between crop farmers and herders has been a recurring issue, resulting in significant loss of life, displacement, and economic instability. What started with sticks has now snowballed into unending violence that involves the use of AK-47s and military-grade firearms, causing killings and the displacement of more than two million people in various parts of Nigeria.

Beyond climate change and resource competition, there is unseen cooperation between jihadi groups and criminal elements, exploiting farmers’ and herders’ crises for their own gain. This infiltration has exposed a key gap in Nigeria’s approach to resolving the conflict, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive strategy.

Jihadi groups, such as Boko Haram and its splinter factions, the Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP), and other terrorist groups like the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) are exploiting local grievances, including poverty and lack of access to education, to attract followers and establish a presence in areas affected by the farmer-herder conflict.

For instance, last month’s killings of over 100 citizens in the Bokkos and Bassa areas of Plateau State bear the operational footprints of the jihadi groups, who are already stepping up their presence in north-central and northwest regions of the country.

In fact, multiple security and local sources told GGA-Nigeria that Boko Haram and ISWAP members are building stronger ties with disgruntled communities, herder-affiliated armed groups, and criminal gangs.

Implications

The development has had knock-on effects for security in every part of Nigeria, as affected individuals are moving to the south, which is fast witnessing an increase in farmer-herder friction, posing additional security threats for citizens.

Locals say farmers who refuse to migrate pay for their survival. They remit thousands of naira to foot soldiers of the ISWAP, who often use the money to buy ammunition through Nigeria’s porous borders. There have also been more frequent and intense attacks in recent months, causing greater harm to innocent civilians and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

According to recent data by HumAngle Tracker, a database that provides insights into key issues in Nigeria, including conflict and security trends, humanitarian crises, and governance and accountability, no fewer than 1,420 people were killed and 537 others kidnapped in various tragic incidents across Nigeria in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.

While security forces are yet to succeed in their fight against jihadists in the northeast, the collaboration between criminal elements and the jihadi groups in the middlebelt will further drain the resources needed to tackle insurgency in the southeast, where a separate ethnic militia agitating for an independent Biafra Republic has been wreaking havoc.

More so, the complexity of the relationship requires a nuanced understanding of the dynamics at play, as they may capitalise on local grievances and frustrations to gain support and legitimacy among certain segments of the population, making it more difficult to achieve a peaceful resolution.

The collaboration also has significant financial implications. By imposing taxes on farmers and kidnapping for ransom, they are able to sustain their operations and potentially expand their reach through intelligence gathering, logistics, and tactical planning, posing a greater threat to regional stability.

Key gap in Nigeria’s response

The ties between jihadi groups and criminal elements expose a key gap in Nigeria’s approach to resolving the farmer-herder conflict, making it challenging for authorities to develop an effective response.

Over the years, the Nigerian government’s response has often focused on deploying military personnel or establishing militias, while community engagement and development initiatives, critical for addressing the underlying drivers of the conflict, have been neglected. However, this approach has limitations unless major actors lay down their weapons.

Nigeria needs to adopt a more comprehensive strategy that takes into account the unseen ties between jihadi groups and criminal elements. This strategy should include improved intelligence gathering and analysis to understand the relationships between jihadi groups and criminal elements.

While sustaining the current peace efforts between herders and farmers, the government must strengthen the dialogues of farmers, pastoralists, vigilantes, ethnic and religious leaders, and security agencies to make collective decisions about managing mutual threats and competing interests.

Lastly, reforming the security sector to ensure that security operations are conducted in a manner that respects human rights and promotes accountability is crucial. Without adequate intelligence on the unseen ties, security operations may not effectively curb the renewed violent attacks.