Foreign aid has never been the solution to Nigeria’s multiple development challenges. However, the halt to US development assistance and the de facto shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will cause additional hardship for Nigeria’s most vulnerable. Modelling based on the International Futures model (IFs), a forecasting platform housed at the University of Denver, suggests that the decision could push approximately 700 000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030. The health sector is disproportionately affected by the freeze as it depends excessively on US aid, primarily for the fight against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases. Nigeria is one of 10 countries globally that are most reliant on US funding for HIV medicines. The US policy shift is a wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to rise to the task of mobilising domestic funds to provide essential services to the population.
Dr Julia Bello-Schünemann is a multilingual research consultant. She is versed in integrated forecasting across sectors (including demographics, infrastructure, economics, conflict and violence, etc.), trend and risk analysis, data analysis, policy advice for governments and international organisations. Her expertise straddles Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the European Union. She possesses vast experience in project management, fundraising, strategic planning, multi-stakeholder consultations, training and facilitation. She is currently an Associate Senior Research Consultant with Good Governance Africa-Nigeria. She holds a PhD in International Relations from the Complutense University Madrid, Spain and an MA in Communication, Political Science and Economics from Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich in Germany.
