Digging deeper: Future-proofing African mining beyond the surface

In 2024, “positive disruption” was all the rage at the Mining Indaba. The event’s 2025 theme of “future-proofing African mining today!” introduces a new dimension to the conversation: what does it mean to create a resilient and secure future for the continent’s mining industry amid increased geopolitical competition and disruption?

Africa’s mining future hinges on moving beyond raw material extraction towards downstream value addition, which is economically sensible. This requires addressing long-standing internal challenges and adapting to a changing global landscape.

The importance of “future-proofing mining” cannot be understated as the Mining Indaba’s host, South Africa, attempts to address existing domestic constraints in its own mining industry.

Africa’s mining paradox

Africa has an abundance of minerals and metals, but the total share of global reserves remains empirically unknown. Claims have been made that the continent is home to nearly 30% of the world’s total mineral reserves. However, the lack of sufficient geological survey data on the continent challenges this assumption. Geological data shows the nature, quality, and quantity of the resources. Whether they are economically viable to mine (and the price range at which mining would be viable) is a different matter.

African mining countries have (and continue to) face numerous challenges in utilising the benefits of these resource endowments for their development. The reasons are multifaceted, including the historical development of the industry, weak governance, and inadequate infrastructure. Addressing these and developing effective geological survey data is crucial in enhancing the institutional capacity to futureproof African mining in the era of “critical minerals”.

One of the difficulties associated with “critical” minerals is that it’s not always clear for whom they are critical, or critical for exactly what, or for how long they will be critical. Are they, for instance, minerals that Europe requires to avoid dependency on China, or are they minerals that are critical for renewable energy technologies?

Competition and critical minerals

This year’s Mining Indaba took place amid a changing geopolitical environment with increased polarisation and competition, which is impacting the supply and demand of minerals and metals. Critical/strategic minerals are those determined essential for national security, economic applications, and the development of energy technologies, and they are largely defined by non-African countries.

This competition is driven predominantly by the national interests of countries seeking to shift the control of the supply chain for the refining and processing of these resources away from Chinese dominance. This currently occurs in a largely uncoordinated manner through bilateral deals with resource-producing countries. This competition, coupled with fast-changing demand profiles, can contribute to increased commodity price volatility. For instance, battery technology is not fixed, and different configurations require different raw materials. Any efforts at futureproofing African mining, therefore, will likely be ineffective without improved coordination among resource-rich nations and credible regional value-addition strategies. In a geopolitically fragmented world, this is more important than ever and difficult to achieve.

Futureproofing in Practice – From extraction to value creation

Futureproofing mining in Africa is about using the changing environment to promote development, trade, and economic cooperation on the continent. These include:

• Leveraging the growing demand for critical minerals and the increasing geopolitical competition over these supply chains for infrastructure investments.
• Utilising the pressure of investors for responsible mining to mitigate risks, promote sustainable practices, and strengthen the requirements for companies to attain a social licence to operate.
• Using regional trade and investment for countries to move beyond extraction towards exploiting global value-chain opportunities.

Criticisms and challenges – How not to be another buzzword

Critics argue that without learning from historical industry issues, future-proofing amid fast-changing mineral demand profiles is a new distraction comparable to the flavour of the week. Such criticism is warranted. Without learning from the history of mining in Africa and the responses to commodity booms, there will be no new development path for the industry. A new approach to mining in Africa is a critical prerequisite for future-proofing.

A significant challenge to the future-proofing of African mining is the tension between national interests and regional collaboration opportunities. Without effective mechanisms for cooperation between African mining countries, there is the risk of a race to the bottom in contract negotiations and infrastructure agreements.

Specific steps must, therefore, be taken to prove future-proofing effective in supporting long-term sustainability and growth. They include but are not limited to:

• Increased regional cooperation, investment, and trade to develop local critical mineral value chains.
• Investment in infrastructure to facilitate said trade, mineral policy, regulatory reform, and harmonisation.
• The development of institutions to promote effective revenue management.
• Increased investment in geological surveying and exploration.
• Implementing effective environmental management processes and systems by mining companies and prioritising land rehabilitation.
• Increased focus on skills development by governments and mining companies.

By drawing on the diverse experiences of African mining countries and strategically fostering cooperation, the continent can build a resilient and prosperous future for the sector and itself.

Futureproofing begins at home

For South Africa, futureproofing begins at home. As the Mining Indaba hosts, South Africa has a unique opportunity–and responsibility—to demonstrate leadership.

Mining Indaba 2024 opened against the backdrop of logistic inefficiency, a continued decline in the rate of new mining investment, regulatory uncertainty, and a need for policy reform. Additionally, a low rate of mine licence approval, inadequate investment in exploration, and a national electricity crisis exacerbated these challenges.

Mining Indaba 2025 opened against a backdrop of progress alongside persistent challenges. The resolution of the electricity crisis (notwithstanding resumed load-shedding) and progress towards developing a cadastral system mark significant progress. Continued challenges include infrastructure issues (logistics and water), continued regulatory uncertainty, depressed investment, and illegal mining. Additionally, South Africa faces softer commodity prices due to changes in mineral demand profiles.

South Africa must intensify its efforts to maintain its competitiveness as a mining destination through increased regulatory efficiency and capitalise on opportunities to develop potential downstream industries further. By creating and applying the concept of futureproofing to existing and emerging challenges, South Africa can demonstrate leadership in shaping the future of African mining.

The cornerstone of future value

The energy transition and shift towards net zero are key drivers of the demand for critical minerals and access to supply chains. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for critical minerals is expected to triple to 35 million tonnes by 2040, driven by the demand for low-carbon technologies.

African mining will be central to meeting the demand, requiring new exploration and, in some cases, expanding existing mines. At the same time, the sector faces numerous sustainability issues, which will likely worsen with the increased demand. These issues include environmental damage, lack of rehabilitation, water contamination, human rights and labour violations, lack of adequate community engagement, and corruption.

In light of this, promoting responsible, sustainable mining practices and addressing the existing challenges must be at the heart of a vision for futureproofing African mining. This requires a paradigm shift. Responsible mining can no longer be a compliance exercise for accessing capital. It must be a core business function prioritising stakeholders and good governance at every stage, from exploration to closure.

Less talk, more actions and practical steps

The Mining Indaba cannot afford to be another exercise in rhetoric. The future of African mining depends on a fundamental shift towards transparency, sustainability, and local value addition. We need more than commitments; we need concrete plans, collaborative action, and measurable results.